Kenya Economic Survey 2025: Winners, Losers & the Road Ahead

“A strong economy is not judged by numbers alone, but by whether it creates dignity, opportunity, and fairness.”

The just-released 2025 Economic Survey by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics offers more than a snapshot of GDP. It paints a layered picture of how different sectors performed in 2024, revealing not only the winners and losers but also the deep structural choices Kenya must make to future-proof its economy.

From booming agriculture and digital finance to struggling manufacturing and an underperforming mining sector, this is Kenya’s economic story told through the numbers — and the people behind them.

🌿 The Winners: Resilient Sectors Driving Growth

🌾 Agriculture: Back to the Roots, and Thriving

If 2023 was a year of recovery, 2024 marked a full rebound for Kenya’s agricultural sector. With a remarkable 16.8% growth rate, agriculture reasserted itself as the bedrock of Kenya’s economy, increasing its contribution to GDP from 21.8% in 2023 to 22.5% in 2024.

This growth was no accident. Favourable rainfall, improved farming practices, and growing investments in dairy and cash crops drove the gains. Sugarcane output soared by over 68%, milk production rose by 12%, and even less traditional indicators — like camel and goat slaughter — posted double-digit growth.

Kenya’s food system is not just feeding the nation, it’s powering rural economies.

💳 Financial Services: Digital Powerhouse

The financial and insurance sector has quietly become one of Kenya’s most dynamic engines of growth. In 2024, it posted a 15.3% growth rate, contributing 8.4% to the GDP. The surge was largely driven by the continued dominance of mobile money, which clocked a staggering KSh 21,975 billion in transactions alongside expanding pension coverage and growing life insurance uptake.

With fintech becoming increasingly accessible even in rural areas, Kenya is proving to be a continental leader in digital financial inclusion.

From boda-boda riders to small-scale traders, the finance sector is helping millions take control of their economic future.

🏘️ Real Estate: Quiet Confidence in a Stubborn Market

Despite headwinds like rising construction costs and interest rates, real estate posted a strong 11.4% growth in 2024, contributing 9.5% to GDP. The supply side may have struggled — completed housing units dropped sharply from 3,357 to 1,655 — but urban demand remained resilient, propped up by the diaspora, land speculation, and rentals.

Government efforts under the Affordable Housing Programme created momentum, but more is needed to bridge Kenya’s vast housing gap.

In a country with a youthful population and rapid urbanization, real estate is less a luxury and more a necessity.

🚨 The Losers: Sectors Needing Urgent Attention

🏭 Manufacturing: A Slow-Motion Crisis

Once positioned as a key pillar of Vision 2030, manufacturing continued its sluggish crawl with a mere 2.8% growth and a reduced GDP share of 8.1% in 2024. The decline is rooted in high energy and input costs, stiff import competition, and underwhelming domestic demand.

Despite some positives in apparel exports from EPZs, the wider industrial sector showed signs of stagnation, with cement consumption falling by 7.2% in 2024, a warning sign for construction-led industries.

Kenya’s industrial dream risks slipping into a policy afterthought unless bold action is taken.

⛏ Mining & Quarrying: Potential Left Underground

With a massive 24.6% contraction in 2024, mining was the worst-performing sector of 2024, contributing a meagre 0.4% to GDP in 2024. Falling titanium production and policy inertia have discouraged new exploration and investment.

Despite Kenya’s rich mineral potential — from rare earths to gold — the sector remains hamstrung by bureaucratic red tape and outdated regulation.

Kenya is literally sitting on economic potential — but it won’t unlock itself.

🍽️ Accommodation & Food Services: The Silent Recovery

The hospitality and tourism-linked segment of Kenya’s economy showed clear signs of revival in 2024, even though full GDP contribution and growth data are missing from the released datasets.

Hotel bed occupancy rose by an impressive 19% in 2024, with total occupied bed-nights climbing to 10.26 million. Similarly, international arrivals increased by 14.7%, reaching 2.39 million — a strong rebound supported by digital visa systems, improved air connectivity, and strategic tourism marketing.

National parks and reserves welcomed 3.7 million visitors, indicating renewed interest in domestic and regional travel as well.

Despite these encouraging numbers, the sector still has hurdles to overcome. Employment levels haven’t fully recovered, and new hospitality investments remain relatively muted. Rising operational costs, global uncertainties, and forex dependencies keep the sector vulnerable.

While not yet back to pre-pandemic strength, Accommodation & Food Services is no longer in decline — it’s on a slow but steady path forward.

🔍 National Snapshot: Cautious Optimism, Uneven Reality

Kenya’s 2024 economic scorecard tells a story of resilience under pressure. The country posted a 4.7% GDP growth rate, slightly down from 5.7% in 2023 — a reminder that while key sectors rebounded, structural headwinds remain.

Inflation eased to 4.5%, bringing modest relief to households facing high food and energy costs. Job creation ticked upward with 782,000 new opportunities, but over 80% of those were in the informal sector, offering limited stability or benefits.

Meanwhile, GDP per capita rose to KSh 309,460, a figure that reflects steady but unequally distributed gains across demographics and regions.

Kenya’s economy is moving — but not fast enough, and not for everyone.

What Comes Next: Navigating the Turning Point

The data is clear: agriculture is thriving, finance is innovating, and real estate is holding ground. But at the same time, manufacturing is treading water, mining is shrinking, and housing supply isn’t meeting demand.

Kenya is now at an inflection point. Decisions made over the next few years will determine whether we accelerate into inclusive, tech-enabled growth — or fall back into cycles of volatility and inequality.

Growth alone is not enough. The goal is growth that includes, empowers, and sustains.

🎯 Stakeholder Roadmap: What Each Actor Must Do

👩‍💼 For Policymakers & Government

Scale irrigation and post-harvest infrastructure to reinforce agriculture’s momentum.

Modernize land, mining, and building regulation to unlock private investment.

Invest in human capital — especially vocational skills tied to priority sectors.

💼 For Private Sector & Entrepreneurs

Double down on innovation in agritech, insuretech, and affordable housing solutions.

Localize supply chains and value addition in manufacturing and agro-processing.

Look beyond Nairobi — second-tier towns and counties are the next growth frontier.

🌍 For Donors, Development Finance Institutions & Impact Investors

Channel capital into resilience sectors: agriculture, digital finance, and education.

Support SMEs — the engine of both formalization and job creation.

Strengthen county-level data, governance, and execution for decentralised development.

📚 Explore the Full Survey To explore more insights, download the full KNBS 2025 Economic Survey here:

👉 https://www.knbs.or.ke/reports/2025-economic-survey/      

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