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By Dataque Analytics | September 2025

“If you want to know what a country truly values, don’t listen to its speeches, look at its budget.”

Each year, Kenya’s national budget arrives with fanfare. Speeches in Parliament, headlines about taxes, and public debates dominate the airwaves. But beyond the noise lies a quieter, more telling truth: how we allocate money says everything about where we want to go, and who we’re leaving behind.

From 2018 to 2025, Kenya’s budget more than doubled in size. But has this growth translated into better education? More food security? Safer hospitals? This blog explores Kenya’s budget not just as numbers, but as a narrative, one that reveals the evolution of our country’s priorities, and what that means for citizens today.

📈 1.0 A Budget That Keeps Growing — But Not Evenly

Let’s start with the big picture. Kenya’s national budget has expanded from KES 2.5 trillion in FY 2018/19 to over KES 4.2 trillion in FY 2025/26.

At face value, this looks like progress. But zoom in, and we start to see where the cracks lie.

Between the 2018/19 and 2025/26 financial years, Kenya’s budget grew from KES 2.53 trillion to KES 4.24 trillion, representing a compound annual growth rate of about 7.7%. On the surface, this steady growth signals that government revenues and fiscal space are expanding, which could allow more resources to be directed towards national priorities. However, a closer look reveals that the Government of Kenya continues to spend a significant share of its budget on recurrent expenditure—such as salaries, debt servicing, and administrative costs—rather than on development or investment spending that drives long-term growth. To bridge the gap, the government increasingly borrows to finance recurrent obligations, while also expanding the tax base to raise more revenue from citizens and businesses. This creates a situation where even as the budget grows in size, the economic impact may be muted: citizens face a heavier tax burden, debt levels rise, and fewer resources are available for infrastructure, innovation, or productivity-enhancing investments that could stimulate sustainable growth.

🧭 2.0 Where the Money Goes: Who’s Winning and Who’s Not

🎓 2.1 Education: Always Funded, Not Always Fixed

Education has remained the budget’s star pupil, consistently receiving the highest share of funding. In 2018, the combined allocation to the Ministry of Education and the Teachers Service Commission stood at KES 446 billion. In 2025, it’s hit KES 702.7 billion, nearly 17% of the entire national budget.

This rise has supported:

• The rollout of the Competency-Based Curriculum (CBC)
• Teacher hiring and promotion through TSC
• Capitation for free primary and secondary schooling
• Expansion of technical and vocational training (TVET)

Yet, parents still complain about delayed disbursements, overcrowded classes, and under-equipped schools. The lesson? Throwing money at education isn’t enough — how it’s spent matters just as much.

🏥 2.2 Health: Growing Slowly, But Falling Behind Needs

Health funding has grown — from KES 87 billion in 2018 to KES 133.4 billion in 2025 — but not nearly fast enough to keep up with rising demand, population growth, and health emergencies.

County hospitals still face shortages of doctors, drugs, and ambulances. The rollout of Universal Health Coverage (UHC) remains patchy — promising on paper, but uneven in practice. Despite years of effort, Kenya spends only 4–5% of its GDP on health — well below the 15% target agreed in the Abuja Declaration.

This means long queues, out-of-pocket expenses, and missed care — especially in rural and informal areas.

🚧 2.3 Infrastructure: The Engine Slows Down

Kenya once made headlines for megaprojects — Standard Gauge Railway (SGR), Lamu Port, dual highways. In 2018, over KES 212 billion went into roads, bridges, and transport.

But by 2025, the infrastructure budget is only slightly higher — KES 217.3 billion — barely keeping pace with inflation.

Why the slowdown?

• Many flagship projects are complete or stalled.
• Debt repayments are now eating into new project funding.
• A push for private-sector partnerships has replaced public investment in many cases.

While Nairobi’s skyline may look impressive, rural roads, market sheds, and county-level transport still lag behind.

🌾 2.4 The Quiet Decline: What Happened to Agriculture?

Now let’s talk about the sector that feeds the nation — and employs most of its people.

Agriculture contributed 22.5% to Kenya’s GDP in 2024, according to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics. Yet in 2025, it receives just KES 47.6 billion — about 1.1% of the total budget.

This is down from KES 59 billion in 2018.

Let that sink in: while we talk about food security, we’re cutting the budget for the very people who grow our food.

The consequences are real:

• Smallholder farmers lack access to irrigation and modern inputs.
• Kenya continues to import maize, rice, and wheat — food it could produce.
• Drought response and climate-smart farming remain underfunded.

Agriculture doesn’t just need praise. It needs investment — consistent, targeted, and scaled.

🧑🏽‍🤝‍🧑🏽 2.5 Social Protection and Gender: Left on the Sidelines

Another overlooked area? Social protection.

In 2025, the Ministry of Gender, Culture, and Social Services received less than KES 4 billion. Programs for cash transfers to the elderly, gender-based violence recovery centers and youth empowerment remain underfunded and overwhelmed.

This is alarming in a country where:

• Over 30% of the population lives in poverty
• GBV rates remain high
• Most youth enter an informal economy with few safeguards

When social services are under-resourced, the most vulnerable pay the price.

💰 3.0 Budget Utilization, Accountability, and Trust: Are We Spending Wisely?

Allocating billions each year is one thing; ensuring those funds are used effectively, accountably, and in line with public priorities is another. Kenya’s budget story from 2018 to 2025 reveals a mixed picture. While some arms of government spend efficiently and transparently, others consistently stumble—undermining public trust and slowing down service delivery.

🏛️ 3.1 The Executive: Big Budget, Big Questions

The Executive commands the lion’s share of the national budget, and absorption rates have generally been strong—hovering in the high-70s to low-80s percent range (Office of the Controller of Budget [CoB], 2024). Recurrent spending on salaries and administration is usually absorbed quickly. But when it comes to development projects, delays in procurement, shifting priorities, and late exchequer releases often stall progress.

Add to this the audit picture: the Office of the Auditor-General frequently flags the Executive for unsupported expenditure, irregular procurement, and ballooning pending bills (Office of Attorney General, 2024). While some ministries—like Education—demonstrate relatively effective use of funds, the Executive as a whole remains the biggest accountability hotspot simply because of its size and scope.

🏛️ 3.2 Parliament: Lean but Compliant

Parliament operates on a relatively small budget compared to the Executive, but its utilization record is steady. Absorption rates are high, with resources channeled into oversight, research, and committee work. More importantly, the audit trail is cleaner—the Auditor-General’s reports often note fewer financial irregularities in parliamentary spending (Office of Attorney General, 2024). In short, Parliament uses what it gets, and does so with comparatively higher compliance, though its impact is felt more in policy oversight than in direct service delivery.

⚖️ 3.3 Judiciary: High Integrity, Low Funding

The Judiciary has been vocal about its funding gaps. Despite being underfunded relative to its growing mandate, it has made effective use of the resources it does receive—expanding Small Claims Courts, digitizing case management, and enhancing access to justice. Audit findings generally show cleaner financial records with fewer instances of misappropriation (Judiciary of Kenya, 2024). The real issue here is not misuse, but underfunding, which limits the Judiciary’s ability to deliver justice at scale.

🌍 3.4 County Governments: Uneven and Risk-Prone

Counties embody both the promise and the pitfalls of devolution. On the positive side, they are closer to citizens and directly responsible for critical services like health and agriculture. Yet their budget absorption remains uneven, with recurrent expenditures like salaries often swallowing the bulk of funds, while development allocations go underutilized. In some cases, less than 30% of development budgets are absorbed in a fiscal year (Controller of Budget, 2024).

Audit reviews reveal an even grimmer picture: Counties consistently attract queries over ghost projects, inflated contracts, and massive pending bills—over KES 160 billion in 2022/23 alone (Office of Attorney General, 2024). While some counties perform better than others, the sector as a whole remains plagued by accountability concerns.

✂️ 4.0 Where Are Budget Cuts Most Likely?

In a period of fiscal consolidation, political considerations shape who feels the knife. Infrastructure and administrative overheads are the most likely to see cuts, especially for projects with low visibility or delayed progress. By contrast, Education, Security, and Social Protection are usually shielded—no government wants to be seen slashing schools, safety, or social safety nets. The Judiciary, already operating on tight allocations, often sees its budget requests pared down in negotiations, even as demand for justice services grows (National Treasury, 2025; Reuters, 2024).

🤝 Public Trust in Who Spends Wisely

Ultimately, how money is spent isn’t just an accounting issue—it’s also about trust. Afrobarometer’s 2024 Kenya survey found that public confidence in political institutions remains below 50%. Courts (Judiciary) generally fare better than the Executive and Parliament, though still below a majority. The police and political parties rank lowest, reflecting widespread concerns about corruption and misuse (Afrobarometer, 2024).

What this means is that citizens are more likely to trust the Judiciary with prudent use of funds, while counties and the Executive face skepticism due to repeated scandals and weak project delivery. Trust, in this sense, mirrors the audit record: institutions with fewer red flags enjoy more credibility.

The Bottom Line:

Kenya’s budget utilization is strongest where spending covers routine operations—like salaries and administration—but weakest where it matters most: development projects that improve lives. When it comes to accountability, Parliament and the Judiciary stand out for cleaner financial records, while the Executive and counties remain more vulnerable to inefficiencies and misuse. Looking ahead, political realities will shield education, security, and social protection from cuts, while infrastructure and overheads take the hit. Yet, public trust remains fragile, with Kenyans placing more faith in the Judiciary than in political arms. The challenge is not just to spend more, but to spend better—and to rebuild trust along the way.

🧮 5.0 But Why Are We Stretched So Thin?

The answer, in one word: debt.

In 2018, debt servicing consumed KES 658 billion. Today, it’s over KES 1.4 trillion — more than the government spends on health, agriculture, and infrastructure combined.

Debt isn’t necessarily bad — if used for high-return investments. But when repayments crowd out essential services, the consequences are severe: stalled projects, delayed salaries, and frustrated citizens.

🧠 6.0 What Should Kenya Do Differently?

1. Balance the Budget for People, Not Just Projects
   Reallocate more to sectors that improve livelihoods — health, agriculture, and education.
2. Invest in What Works
   Put money into irrigation, community health workers, and informal sector support — high-impact, low-cost interventions.
3. Strengthen County Capacities
   Devolve not just funds, but also planning and accountability systems, to improve delivery.
4. Tame the Debt Monster
   Restructure borrowing toward concessional sources and limit non-essential spending.

📢 Final Word: Budgets Reflect Choices

Kenya’s budget from 2018 to 2025 reflects ambition — but also misalignment. As we look to the future, the challenge is not just to grow the budget, but to spend it better. To invest in people, protect the vulnerable, and lay down the infrastructure of dignity — not just roads.

Because when budgets work for the many, not the few — that’s when real development begins.

📌 Want to See the Numbers?

We’ve pulled all data from publicly available, credible sources so you can explore for yourself:

National Treasury, Republic of Kenya. (2025, June). Budget summary for the financial year 2025/26 [PDF]. https://www.treasury.go.ke/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Budget-Summary-for-the-FY-2025-26F.pdf

National Treasury, Republic of Kenya. (2018, February). 2018 Budget Policy Statement: Creating jobs, transforming lives – “The Big Four” plan [PDF]. https://www.treasury.go.ke/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/2018-Budget-Policy-Statement.pdf

KPMG Advisory Services Limited. (2025, June). Kenya 2025/2026 budget brief: Sustaining bottom-up economic transformation agenda, fiscal consolidation and investing in climate change mitigation and adaptation for improved livelihoods [PDF]. KPMG East Africa. https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/ke/pdf/tax/2025/Kenya_2025_2026_Budget_Brief.pdf

Institute of Public Finance (IPF). (2025). How budget estimates are distributed in FY 2025/26 [Webpage]. IPF Global Kenya. https://ipfglobal.or.ke/budget-estimates/

Open Budget Kenya. (n.d.). Kenya national budget data (fiscal years 2021–2025) [Web resource]. Retrieved September 5, 2025, from https://openbudget.or.ke/

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